Il ne fait pas bon être une tête d’affiche dans le paysage politique français. En novembre, Nicolas Sarkozy a été battu dès le 1er tour de la primaire à droite et Alain Juppé distancé au second. Chez les écologistes, Cécile Duflot écartée par les militants. François Hollande, lui, n’a pas eu besoin de primaire. Il a renoncé de lui même.
Rebelote ce dimanche, où Manuel Valls a été battu. En quelques semaines, ce sont donc un ancien président, deux ex-Premiers ministres, une ex-ministre et chef de parti sont passés à la trappe des primaires. Sans compter l’actuel chef de l’Etat.
Ce dimanche, lors du second tour de la primaire de la gauche, c’est Benoît Hamon -et les électeurs- qui ont brisé les rêves présidentiels de l’ex-Premier ministre Manuel Valls. Début décembre, il était donné favori de la primaire après la décision de François Hollande de ne pas se représenter. C’était compter sans le rejet des électeurs de gauche qui l’ont tenu responsable du bilan du quinquennat. « La primaire pénalise ceux qui ont exercé le pouvoir relativement récemment. On sanctionne ceux qui étaient au pouvoir et qui ont déçu », analyse François Miquet-Marty, président de l’institut ViaVoice.
Le fardeau de l’exercice du pouvoir
Fin novembre, l’élimination de Nicolas Sarkozy a été la première surprise des primaires. Les électeurs ne voulaient pas du match revanche Sarkozy-Hollande de la présidentielle 2012 et l’ont fait savoir. « Il y a des dirigeants qui capitalisent plus que d’autres une hostilité émotionnellement forte. La sarkophobie était enfouie mais la campagne l’a forcément réveillée. Hostilité à gauche, mais à droite il était aussi très clivant », note Philippe Braud, politologue au Cevipof.
De son côté, François Hollande, ne pouvait pas compter sur une situation assez favorable pour se représenter. Au plus bas dans les sondages, accusé d’avoir trahi ses engagements, le chef de l’Etat a renoncé à se soumettre à la primaire. « La primaire l’a plus handicapé qu’autre chose, on voit bien que l’idée d’un président de la République contraint de participer à une compétition primaire est pour lui un exercice compliqué », souligne François Miquet-Marty.
Les primaires, un premier tour présidentiel
Alain Juppé, 71 ans, a aussi fait les frais de la demande de renouveau. En tête des sondages pendant des mois, il a échoué loin derrière François Fillon au second tour. « Les primaires déplacent un peu ce qui se passait auparavant au 1er tour de la présidentielle, où être favori n’était pas forcément un avantage », note François Braud. Son âge et son décalage par rapport aux attentes des électeurs de droite ont joué contre lui.
Bilan, à droite comme à gauche, le vote sanction s’exprime particulièrement bien lors des primaires. Et il prime sur le vote d’adhésion. Sans aboutir au finalement sur le renouveau: François Fillon, 62 ans, désigné par la droite, est en politique depuis près de 40 ans et Benoît Hamon, 49 ans, choisi par le PS, depuis plus de 25 ans. Une manière d’allier des parcours pas trop usés et une certaine l’expérience
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